Toomey for Senate

By Borys Krawczeniuk
Citizens Voice

U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter's support for re-election remains lukewarm, with the senator still leading his Democratic challenger Joe Sestak but struggling against Republican Pat Toomey, according to a new Franklin & Marshall College poll co-sponsored by Times-Shamrock Newspapers.

Specter, a Democrat, topped Sestak among Democrats, 33 to 16 percent, and led Toomey among registered voters, 33 to 29 percent. But the senator and Sestak badly trail Toomey if only likely voters are counted. Among likely voters, Toomey led Specter 44 to 34 percent and Sestak 38 to 20 percent.

Specter's favorability, job performance and re-electability numbers also declined from an F&M poll last month.

The slumping poll numbers are far from fatal for Specter, because Toomey and Sestak remain unknown to more than six in 10 voters, said G. Terry Madonna, Ph.D., director of the F&M poll.

"That is a huge wild card," Madonna said.

But Toomey's better performance among likely voters shows Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting this year, and that could also be a huge factor, Madonna said.

Nachama Soloveichik, Toomey's campaign spokeswoman, said the poll joins others that show "Pennsylvanians have had enough of Arlen Specter's brand of insider politics that has given us record unemployment and budget deficits."

Jonathan Dworkin, Sestak's spokesman, said "the writing is on the wall for Sen. Specter."

Chris Nicholas, Specter's campaign spokesman, declined to comment.
Governor's race

In the governor's race, three Democrats - Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato and state Auditor General Jack Wagner - were all tied at 6 percent. Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty, who has dropped out, had 4 percent and state Sen. Anthony H. Williams had 1 percent.

It is the first time an independent poll has shown Onorato below double digits in support. That follows Wagner's stronger performance at the Democratic state committee meeting, where he had more support than any candidate, though too little to earn an endorsement.

On the Republican side, state Attorney General Tom Corbett led state Rep. Sam Rohrer by a wide margin, 26 to 4 percent, but most Republicans remain undecided.

The poll surveyed 1,143 adults, including 954 registered voters (481 Democrats, 340 Republicans and 111 independents or third-party voters).

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points for all adults; plus or minus 3.2 points for registered voters; plus or minus 4.5 points for Democrats; and 5.3 percent for Republicans. For likely voters, the margin of error is plus or minus 5.4 points.

The poll also shows Pennsylvanians remain concerned about the economy. Almost three in 10 (29 percent) say it will be the primary motivator in their vote for governor this year. Only 37 percent say the state is on the right track, compared to 50 percent who say it is on the wrong track. Only 13 percent say they are better off than a year ago, and 41 percent think they are worse off.

As usual, more are optimistic than pessimistic about the future with 28 percent saying they will be better off a year from now and 18 percent saying they will be worse off.

Pennsylvanians also have a mostly favorable view of President Barack Obama - 49 percent favorable to 39 percent unfavorable.